Can we quit cobalt batteries fast enough to make electric cars viable?

Electric cars are getting cheaper and their sales are on the rise, but their future success may depend on ditching a key ingredient: the heavy metal cobalt.

The mineral is used in the lithium-ion batteries that power electric cars, and demand is steadily rising. A new analysis by Elsa Olivetti at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and her colleagues has found there may be cobalt shortages if we don’t start refining and recycling it more efficiently or in greater quantities.

They estimate that global demand for cobalt will rise to between 235,000 and 430,000 tonnes by 2030 – an amount that is at least 1.6 times the world’s current capacity to refine the metal, as of 2016 figures.

Lithium-ion batteries used in electric cars and other consumer electronics account for about half of all cobalt demand, and the demand for these batteries is projected to more than quadruple over the next decade.

Cobalt is often produced as a by-product of copper or nickel mining. As such, it is affected by fluctuations in the demand and pricing of those metals. It is also expensive, costing around $33,000 per tonne.

Beyond its price, extracting the metal has a human cost too. Most of the world’s supply – 60 per cent – comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where mining has been linked to child labour and deaths.

The new analysis suggests cobalt supply is adequate at least in the short-term, but that more mining exploration, such as in the ocean, is needed. In addition, we will need to ramp up cobalt recycling by recovering it from batteries in unused electric cars, laptops and mobile phones.

Another option is to shift to batteries that use less cobalt, or none at all. Elon Musk’s car firm Tesla is in talks with battery manufacturer CATL to use entirely cobalt-free batteries in its China-made cars, according to a report this week by Reuters.

Neither firm has commented publicly on the report, but Musk has previously stated an ambition to ditch cobalt, tweeting in 2018 that existing Tesla batteries used less than 3 per cent cobalt and that the “next gen” would use none.

Lithium-ion batteries in electric cars commonly use either nickel cobalt aluminium or nickel manganese cobalt oxides for their ability to offer a long lifespan and high energy density – a determining factor in how far a single charge can power an electric car.

For short-range cars made and sold in China, Reuters says Tesla will instead use lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, which are much cheaper and don’t have the same environmental problems as those needing cobalt. The disadvantage is that these batteries tend to have a lower energy density, reducing how far a car can drive without needing to charge.

Industry analysts such as Simon Moores at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence in London have suggested that the move is unlikely to be replicated outside China, saying it is driven more by a desire to reduce production costs in China than to phase out cobalt.

Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries are already widely used by other Chinese firms, including BYD, the world’s biggest electric car manufacturer. If other electric car manufacturers follow internationally, we may be able to reduce our dependency on a dwindling mineral resource.

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